Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 3.394913e-02 0.039897 0.046067 0.052906 0.060239 0.067834 0.076265
2025-12-07 2.563722e-02 0.034257 0.043742 0.054779 0.067114 0.080344 0.095479
2025-12-14 2.062203e-02 0.030885 0.042752 0.057086 0.073589 0.091709 0.112848
2025-12-21 1.633653e-02 0.027482 0.041006 0.057898 0.077839 0.100155 0.126587
2025-12-28 1.478736e-02 0.027113 0.042587 0.062351 0.086060 0.112903 0.144989
2026-01-04 1.104810e-02 0.023268 0.039434 0.060754 0.086897 0.116965 0.153337
2026-01-11 9.016712e-03 0.021434 0.038587 0.061773 0.090671 0.124282 0.165282
2026-01-18 7.136934e-03 0.019485 0.037360 0.062136 0.093511 0.130395 0.175740
2026-01-25 5.619095e-03 0.017812 0.036322 0.062596 0.096355 0.136425 0.186029
2026-02-01 4.210495e-03 0.016006 0.034906 0.062421 0.098304 0.141305 0.194902
2026-02-08 2.560497e-03 0.013220 0.031759 0.059713 0.096902 0.142024 0.198756
2026-02-15 1.576399e-03 0.011384 0.029839 0.058524 0.097315 0.144854 0.205036
2026-02-22 1.071866e-03 0.010534 0.029496 0.059635 0.100866 0.151748 0.216464
2026-03-01 7.048297e-04 0.009857 0.029382 0.061063 0.104854 0.159226 0.228666
2026-03-08 4.988705e-04 0.009576 0.029910 0.063400 0.110034 0.168184 0.242660
2026-03-15 2.484781e-04 0.008790 0.029452 0.064238 0.113193 0.174607 0.253578
2026-03-22 2.602090e-04 0.009404 0.031577 0.068932 0.121516 0.187495 0.272346
2026-03-29 3.566093e-05 0.007845 0.029501 0.067247 0.121225 0.189554 0.277935
2026-04-05 8.694968e-07 0.007295 0.029277 0.068322 0.124627 0.196234 0.289134
2026-04-12 NaN 0.006583 0.028636 0.068705 0.127056 0.201665 0.298791
2026-04-19 NaN 0.005957 0.028089 0.069188 0.129595 0.207214 0.308580
2026-04-26 NaN 0.005208 0.027158 0.069004 0.131172 0.211511 0.316808
2026-05-03 NaN 0.003902 0.024662 0.066150 0.128932 0.210844 0.318846